Manage Right and Steer Clear
of the Perfect Storm - Part
I
Remember
the movie The Perfect Storm? The one where all the
weather conditions aligned to create the optimum
conditions for the biggest storm in 100 years? Picture
the monster waves, the howling winds, and the
storm-tossed ship. Well, I'm here to tell you that you
might have the perfect conditions in your business to
create your very own 100 year storm. It's called a cash
crisis and it's nastier than any movie N'Wester you've
ever experienced.
If
you've ever reached the end of the month and seen a
decent profit on your P&L only to find you have no
money in the bank account you know what I mean. If
you've ever neared year's end only to find the same
thing, you really know what I'm talking about.
Scrambling to make payroll, missing loan payments, and
drawing out vendors are a few of the more telling
symptoms.
We
talk a lot about this issue in our Profit Mastery
Workshops because it's such a big challenge for most of
the business owners we know.
Many
businesses are especially hard hit because of the three
"biggies" that, if not managed correctly, can
create the "perfect storm" leading to a cash
flow crisis. They are: inventory, receivables, and a
seasonal sales cycle.
To
see how inventory and receivables can impact cash, take
a look at one of our favorite diagrams from our Profit
Mastery course - the working capital cycle:
Here's
how the cycle works: we start out with cash and purchase
some inventory (in some of your cases, lots of
inventory). We
then turn loose our crack sales force who sell the
inventory, and every once in a while we hear those two
dreaded words in business - "charge it" or
"bill me" - and an account
receivable is created. For those of you who don't sell
on account, congratulations, you just passed go and
collected your sales dollars immediately. For those
unfortunate others, don't worry! I'm sure your
collection department efficiently collects the payments
due and you are back to cash again – cash to purchase
new inventory and a little left over to do some other
things in the business, like pay rent, make payroll,
etc.
The
working capital cycle is a key measure of your
efficiency as a business owner. Every business owner
needs to know what drives the cycle in their business,
and what sucks cash out of the cycle. Managing the cycle
more efficiently (like making it turn faster) will
generate more cash and reduce the level of bank loans
(and vendor payables) needed to supplement our working
capital. In short, the cycle becomes a nice life
preserver to keep us afloat when the squalls hit.
Manage
the cycle less efficiently (or not at all) at your own
peril, as it becomes a lead weight around the life of
your business that will drag it down.
Ok,
enough of the storm analogy for now. How do we know
we're doing a good job as cash managers? Besides having
a nice wad of cash in the bank, we have a few good ways
of measuring our effectiveness. They're called benchmark
ratios, and in this case they're called, not
surprisingly, Cash Flow Ratios. This is an area in which
all of our FIT Performance Group members set specific
goals and assess their progress on a regular basis.
Specifically,
these benchmarks include Inventory Turnover, Accounts
Receivable Turnover, and Accounts Payable Turnover.
I'll
review Inventory Turnover, as one example using our
friend John Thomas as example. Inventory Turns (Cost of
Goods Sold divided by Inventory) measures the rate at
which inventory is sold. While his industry peers turned
their inventory in 211 days, it took John 288 days to
turn his inventory. To find out why this 77-day
difference is so crucial to his cash situation, let's do
an analysis:
| |
Inventory
Turns
|
Inventory
Days
|
| John
Thomas Inc. |
1.25
|
288
|
| Industry
Peers |
1.70
|
211
|
| Difference |
(.45)
|
77
days |
If
we know the formula for inventory turnover which is the
rate at which inventory is sold on an annual basis, we
can use these numbers to find out what the inventory
savings would be if John could turn his inventory more
efficiently.
| Inventory
Turnover |
= |
Cost
of Goods Sold/Inventory |
|
= |
$795,000
÷ $636,000 |
|
= |
1.25
turns per year |
|
= |
360
÷ 1.25 |
|
= |
288
days |
Then we can re-arrange the formula like this: |
| Inventory |
= |
Cost
of Goods Sold ÷ Inventory Turnover |
Now we add "Target" to both sides of
the equation: |
| Target
Inventory |
= |
Cost
of Goods Sold ÷ Target Inventory Turnover |
|
= |
$795,000
÷ 1.70* |
|
= |
$467,647 |
|
*The
target is the rate at which industry peers are turning
their inventory
|
| Inventory
at 1.25 Turns |
$636,000 |
| Inventory
at 1.70 Turns |
-$467,647 |
| Equals
"Inventory Savings" |
$168,353 |
Whoa.
That's a whopping chunk of money! If it weren't there in
his inventory it would be available to John as much
needed cash. Furthermore, when you take the
$168,353 excess inventory and divide it by the 77 days
he lets his inventory sit around, you get about $2,200
for every day it sits in his cases. Kind of gives the
phrase, "What A Difference A Day Makes" new
meaning doesn't it? This is criminal when you
think of the ways you (oops, I mean John) could have
used that cash in his business (such as taking discounts
from his vendors or paying off his credit line and
avoiding extra interest - or maybe even putting money in
his own pocket!
You
can do the same analysis using Accounts Receivable Turns
to see how much you have sitting your customers' pockets
that should be in your bank account.
But
up to this point, we've just been looking at past
history, the "back of the boat" so to speak,
to get back to our nautical analogy. How do we steer
clear of impending storms created by our seasonal sales
cycles? By looking out the bow. In his case, we need to
focus on the future and start asking the questions,
"Where are we going?" and "What if?"
Stayed
tuned for next month:
Cash
Crisis: Manage Right and Steer Clear of the Perfect
Storm, Part II. In this article, I'll walk you through
why profits don't always equal cash, and how to make
plans in advance for required funds using a profit
plan and cash budget.
|