Manage Right and Steer Clear
of the Perfect Storm
Part
I
Remember
the movie The Perfect Storm? The one where all the weather conditions
aligned to create the optimum conditions for the biggest storm in 100
years? Picture the monster waves, the howling winds, and the storm-tossed
ship. Well, I'm here to tell you that you might have the perfect
conditions in your business to create your very own 100 year storm. It's
called a cash crisis and it's nastier than any movie N'Wester you've ever
experienced.
If
you've ever reached the end of the month and seen a decent profit on your
P&L only to find you have no money in the bank account you know what I
mean. If you've ever neared year's end only to find the same thing, you
really know what I'm talking about. Scrambling to make payroll, missing
loan payments, and drawing out vendors are a few of the more telling
symptoms.
We
talk a lot about this issue in our Profit Mastery Workshops because it's
such a big challenge for most of the business owners we know.
Many
businesses are especially hard hit because of the three
"biggies" that, if not managed correctly, can create the
"perfect storm" leading to a cash flow crisis. They are:
inventory, receivables, and a seasonal sales cycle.
To
see how inventory and receivables can impact cash, take a look at one of
our favorite diagrams from our Profit Mastery course - the working capital
cycle:

Here's
how the cycle works: we start out with cash and purchase some inventory
(in some of your cases, lots of inventory). We then turn loose our crack
sales force who sell the inventory, and every once in a while we hear
those two dreaded words in business - "charge it" or "bill
me" - and an account receivable is created. For those of you who
don't sell on account, congratulations, you just passed go and collected
your sales dollars immediately. For those unfortunate others, don't worry!
I'm sure your collection department efficiently collects the payments due
and you are back to cash again – cash to purchase new inventory and a
little left over to do some other things in the business, like pay rent,
make payroll, etc.
The
working capital cycle is a key measure of your efficiency as a business
owner. Every business owner needs to know what drives the cycle in their
business, and what sucks cash out of the cycle. Managing the cycle more
efficiently (like making it turn faster) will generate more cash and
reduce the level of bank loans (and vendor payables) needed to supplement
our working capital. In short, the cycle becomes a nice life preserver to
keep us afloat when the squalls hit.
Manage
the cycle less efficiently (or not at all) at your own peril, as it
becomes a lead weight around the life of your business that will drag it
down.
Ok,
enough of the storm analogy for now. How do we know we're doing a good job
as cash managers? Besides having a nice wad of cash in the bank, we have a
few good ways of measuring our effectiveness. They're called benchmark
ratios, and in this case they're called, not surprisingly, Cash Flow Ratios.
This is an area in which all of our FIT Performance Group members set
specific goals and assess their progress on a regular basis.
Specifically,
these benchmarks include Inventory Turnover, Accounts Receivable Turnover,
and Accounts Payable Turnover.
I'll
review Inventory Turnover, as one example using our friend John Thomas as
example. Inventory Turns (Cost of Goods Sold divided by
Inventory) measures the rate at which inventory is sold. While his
industry peers turned their inventory in 211 days, it took John 288 days
to turn his inventory. To find out why this 77-day difference is so
crucial to his cash situation, let's do an
analysis:
| |
Inventory
Turns
|
Inventory
Days
|
| John
Thomas Inc. |
1.25
|
288
|
| Industry
Peers |
1.70
|
211
|
| Difference |
(.45)
|
77
days |
If
we know the formula for inventory turnover which is the rate at which
inventory is sold on an annual basis, we can use these numbers to find out
what the inventory savings would be if John could turn his inventory more
efficiently.
| Inventory
Turnover |
= |
Cost
of Goods Sold/Inventory |
|
= |
$795,000 ÷
$636,000 |
|
= |
1.25
turns per year |
|
= |
360 ÷
1.25 |
|
= |
288
days |
Then we can re-arrange the formula like this: |
| Inventory |
= |
Cost
of Goods Sold ÷ Inventory Turnover |
Now we add "Target" to both sides of the equation: |
| Target
Inventory |
= |
Cost
of Goods Sold ÷ Target Inventory Turnover |
|
= |
$795,000
÷ 1.70* |
|
= |
$467,647 |
*the
target is the rate at which industry peers are turning their inventory
| Inventory
at 1.25 Turns |
$636,000 |
| Inventory
at 1.70 Turns |
-$467,647 |
| Equals
"Inventory Savings" |
$168,353 |
Whoa.
That's a whopping chunk of money! If it weren't there in his inventory it
would be available to John as much needed cash. Furthermore, when you take
the $168,353 excess inventory and divide it by the 77 days he lets his
inventory sit around, you get about $2,200 for every day it sits in his
cases. Kind of gives the phrase, "What A Difference A Day Makes"
new meaning doesn't it? This is criminal when you think of the ways
you (oops, I mean John) could have used that cash in his business (such as
taking discounts from his vendors or paying off his credit line and
avoiding extra interest - or maybe even putting money in his own pocket!
You
can do the same analysis using Accounts Receivable Turns to see how much
you have sitting your customers' pockets that should be in your bank
account.
But
up to this point, we've just been looking at past history, the "back
of the boat" so to speak, to get back to our nautical analogy. How do
we steer clear of impending storms created by our seasonal sales cycles?
By looking out the bow. In his case, we need to focus on the future and
start asking the questions, "Where are we going?" and "What
if?"
Stayed
tuned for next month:
Cash Crisis: Manage
Right and Steer Clear of the Perfect Storm, Part II. In this article,
I'll walk you through why profits don't always equal cash, and how to
make plans in advance for required funds using a profit plan and cash
budget.
|